Saturday, April 19, 2014

2014 NBA Playoffs 1st Round Predictions and Analysis

EAST                                                                 WEST

8. Atlanta Hawks    Pacers win 4-2                8. Dallas Mavericks        Spurs win 4-1
1. Indiana Pacers                                            1. San Antonio Spurs

5. Washington Wizards    Wizards win 4-3   5. Portland Trail Blazers Rockets win 4-2
4. Chicago Bulls                                           4. Houston Rockets

6. Brooklyn Nets    Raptors win 4-2             6. Golden State Warriors  Clippers win 4-2
3. Toronto Raptors                                        3. LA Clippers

7. Charlotte Bobcats    Heat win 4-1           7. Memphis Grizzlies      Thunder win 4-1
2. Miami Heat                                              2. Oklahoma City Thunder


8-1 East: I'm not going to lie, I'm really disappointed that we arent going to get to see Indiana
and Charlotte in the 1st round. The Bobcats matchup really well with  Indiana, and I thought it
would be a great series, and we could have even potentially seen an upset, and I'm not just saying
that based on the Pacers' recent struggles. Unfortunately, the Heat werent trying and OKC blew it
for all of us...Now on to the actual series. Atlanta is definitely hurt by injuries to Pero Antic
and Al Horford, but they still are a very good shooting team, and have shown decent defensive
ability, at least on the perimeter. What hurts them in this matchup though is that they are 28th
in rebounding. I see the Hawks not making it too easy on Indiana, especially if the Pacers continue
to struggle the way they have. The Pacers have become too stagnant offensively, having terrible possessions and letting it effect their defense. They hold the ball wayyyy too much and try to play too much 1-0n-1 basketball with the rest of the team just standing around. Zero ball movement. Zero player movement. Their turnover issue is still apparent. They need to get back to being the balanced team they've been over the past 2-3 seasons. Obviously, they'll need Paul George to step up when it matters most, but you cant put the type of pressure and reliance they have put on him over the past couple of months. He isnt at that level offensively yet. At the end of the day though, I trust that David West will show his leadership, and get them on the right track for them to win this series.

7-2 East: Charlotte has a much better matchup against Indiana than against Miami. They have a top 5 defense, but they have had trouble scoring at times, especially from 3, though that has improved since trading for Gary Neal. Michael-Kidd Gilchrist is for real defending the best player on the opponent's team, and he has done a good job at the 3 position. He has made it tough on elite players as well, but at the end of the day, you arent containing LeBron James. I really like this Charlotte team. Al Jefferson is a beast. Unfortunately, they run into a bad matchup against the 2 time defending NBA Champions, and they wont be able to continue their great season. Heading into next season, I've been throwing them out there as a darkhorse for Carmelo Anthony. They're returning to the Charlotte Hornets name, and Michael Jordan will likely want to make a big splash with his cap space. a Melo-Jefferson inside out combo is pretty good, and this team has good pieces around that as well. I personally would love to see it. Not going to hold my breath though.

6-3: I find it funny that the Nets tried to purposely lose the last couple of games just to avoid
the Bulls and to "set up a 2nd round matchup against Miami." Unfortunately for them, they arent
getting past Toronto. Toronto is a very exciting, and well balanced team. They are fun to watch.
Kyle Lowry has finally got a chance to show what he can do, Demar Derozan has finally stepped up to show what he is capable of, and they have other pieces as well in Amir Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas, Terrance Ross, Greivis Vasquez, and Patrick Patterson. The Nets are a nice veteran team, and this should be a really good series. I'm so happy for Shaun Livingston. I just think Toronto's athleticism is going to be too much for the Nets. The only thing I worry about on Toronto's end in this series, is their lack of experience. Maybe that pushes Brooklyn over in this series, but I just think Toronto is good enough to overcome that experience difference.

5-4 East: This has a chance to be the best series in the 1st round in the Eastern Conference. It was very tough for me to pick this series, so I decided to call it a 7 game series, though it obviously has a chance to be a shorter series. I wont lie, I kind of wanted to see Washington and Toronto in the 1st round, but the Nets had to spoil that for me. At least we dont have to see the Bulls and Nets again though...I just think Chicago's scoring issues are going to hurt them in this series. Washington can run the point total up, but they also are capable of playing good defense, especially with Trevor Ariza on the wing. They are super athletic as well, and I just see John Wall taking his moment to shine, and running with it to officially declare his arrival. Chicago is a really good team. They have a great coach. They leave everything on the floor every single night. That is going to keep these games close and keep them in the series. I'm a fan of Jimmy Butler. Hinrich is still a good player. Joakim Noah is amazing. He was considered a bust at one point, but his hard work has turned him into one of the best Centers in the NBA, and a great leader. Taj Gibson is arguably my favorite player in the NBA, and has been over the past 3-4 years b/c of his amazing versatility. I wouldnt be surprised to see Chicago win this series at all. I just dont know how their scoring issues will play out here. Looking forward to this series.

8-1 West: Before the season, I said that we would have 8 or 9 teams in the West win 50 games or
get incredibly close to 50 wins, and I was correct. This is a deep conference. I like Dallas' team.
Unfortunately, they face the best team in the NBA, and they arent going to get past them. San
Antonio is just such a great, balanced, and deep team. They are an awesome passing team, and they knock down shots. Its going to be fun to see Dirk and Tim Duncan go at it 1 more time. Dont overlook Dallas. They could potentially force a 6th game. Monta Ellis has been a great pickup for them, and has improved his efficiency. Jose Calderon has long been super under rated. Shawn Marion is apparently an ageless wonder, and "The Matrix" is still the perfect nickname for him. Its crazy that he still guards the 3 position the way he does, and he still has a ton of versatility on the court. Vince Carter has been great off the bench. They also have rim protection from Dalembert and Wright. They are a good veteran team. They just ran into a giant. Should be a nostalgic and fun series, but the Spurs are just too good.

7-2: Memphis finds themselves in a similar situation as Dallas. If they hadnt been hurt by injuries
early in the season, they likely would be a much higher seed. Love their style. I'm a fan of their
whole team, but OKC is just too good when they are healthy. Their athleticism is going to stand out in this series. Memphis has a chance if they can do their thing, slow the game down offensively, and hold on to the ball, not allowing the Thunder to get out in the open floor. Still, I have too much faith in Kevin Durant and Russel Westbrook to think that OKC wont win this series. I'll be saying that again later on in these playoffs. This should be a great series. It does have a shot to be a long series. I just think OKC is too good to not put this one away as soon as possible.

6-3 West: This probably would have been the best series had Andrew Bogut not been injured. It still should be a good series, and could result in an upset. This is going to be a very physical series, as these 2 teams do not like each other. Golden State lost rim protection and defense with Bogut going down, but Jermaine Oneal has been very good this year. They have the ability to play small with Draymond Greene and Harrison Barnes. Defensively, even with losing Bogut, they should be fine, with Igoudala and Thompson on the perimeter, though I'm not so sure about the PG matchup there. They need to find a way to contain Chris Paul, and take the ball out of his hands. Both of these teams are going to knock down shots all series. Its likely going to be a high scoring matchup. I'm hoping this one goes 7 games. At the end, I just think the Clippers are a deeper team, and Chris Paul will lead them into the 2nd round. Its unfortunate that someone is going to have to lose this one. Both teams are deserving.

5-4 West: I've said it a lot. Houston should be an elite team, but nobody guards on the perimeter
other than Patrick Beverly. Also, they dont play through Dwight Howard enough to set up their
outside shots. It just shows just how good they should be b/c they are still a really good team. James Harden frustrates me just b/c I know for a fact that he can play defense, as he did so in OKC. However, ever since he came to Houston, he doesnt play defense at all. Offensively, he is amazing. Both of these teams use the 3 point shot as a huge part of their games. Portland generally does it off of offensive rebounding. Portland has a chance in this series if they get what they need from LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. Wesley Matthews needs to be what he was this season, and they need Nicholas Batum to show his talent. He has a great all around, two way game, but sometimes he disappears. He could be the X factor for them. Robin Lopez has been awesome for them all season. Portland did a good job of improving their bench, which was a weakness last season, but I just dont think they are deep enough. This should also be a high scoring series. Terrance Jones has really stepped up for Houston all season. He is going to be a big factor in this series, as is Chandler Parsons. They are going to be counting on Patrick Beverly to try and contain Damian Lillard. I'm worried about Beverly's recent knee injury. I dont know how that is going to hold up. As I said, he is their only perimeter defender. It could come into play. At the end, I see Houston edging out Portland in 6 games b/c of their overall talent level.

I'll be posting 2nd round predictions when the time comes

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